Joe, a retired astronomer in Tucson, wonders where odds in What are the odds? comes from. It traces back to odd as the opposite of even: if one stack of coins differs from otherwise equal stacks, it is the odd one. From that sense of difference or...
tail risk n.— «“Tail risk,” as it is known to quantitative traders, for where it falls in a bell-shaped probability curve. Tail risk, broadly speaking, is whatever financial cataclysm is believed by markets to have a 1 percent chance or less of...
probability neglect n.— «Humans are the only species that understand risk, but we also engage in what’s called “probability neglect.” This is when we ignore probabilities and worry about more traumatic possibilities.» —“Good Question: Why Do We...
