A retired astronomer in Tucson, Arizona, is curious about the expression What are the odds? The idea of odds meaning “the likelihood of something occurring,” goes back to the idea of odds and evens and something odd being the thing that’s different...
tail risk n.— «“Tail risk,” as it is known to quantitative traders, for where it falls in a bell-shaped probability curve. Tail risk, broadly speaking, is whatever financial cataclysm is believed by markets to have a 1 percent chance or less of...
probability neglect n.— «Humans are the only species that understand risk, but we also engage in what’s called “probability neglect.” This is when we ignore probabilities and worry about more traumatic possibilities.» —“Good Question: Why Do We...
